Sunday Night and Early Monday Outlook
Off-and-on storms are expected Sunday night into early Monday morning across central Missouri. While better storm ingredients exist in the plains, there is enough instability in central Missouri to support a few severe storms. The tornado threat during this period is described as low but not zero. Storms could produce strong wind gusts and localized flash flooding. A flood watch has been issued for northwest parts of the region due to the potential for thunderstorms moving over the same areas multiple times.
Monday Afternoon and Evening Severe Weather Potential
The primary severe weather threat is expected Monday afternoon and evening, conditional on weather variables. The forecast hinges on how much dry time and sunshine breaks through during midday Monday. If there is ample dry time, severe weather potential increases significantly. The low-floor scenario includes a few storms with 60 mph wind gusts and golf ball-sized hail. The high-ceiling scenario could include hail up to baseball size, wind gusts over 70 mph, and even a tornado or two. Storms are expected to develop over mid-Missouri before racing eastward, with increasing severe potential from west to east across the state and into central Illinois.
Forecast Uncertainty and Safety Preparation
Monday is characterized as a 'low-floor, high-ceiling' event, meaning impacts could range anywhere from minimal to quite significant depending on how the forecast evolves. The National Weather Service emphasizes that residents should have a severe weather safety plan in place and review it with their families. Those in the warning area should have a way to receive alerts throughout the overnight hours and Monday evening.
Recent Tornado Activity in Region
The most recent confirmed tornadoes in the Columbia area occurred on April 17, 2026, when tornadoes were confirmed in Cole, Boone, and Callaway counties. These storms caused damage and left thousands without power across mid-Missouri. 
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