When does the 2026 hurricane season start and what are the updated forecasts?

2026 Season Start and Updated Forecasts

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1, 2026. The National Hurricane Center has unveiled several significant changes to its forecast products that will debut this season, designed to enhance accuracy and provide more comprehensive risk information to communities.

New Forecast Cone Shape

The hurricane forecast cone will transition from a circular shape to an elliptical shape. This change aims to increase accuracy in both long-term forecasts and from update to update. The new cone uses the 90th percentile standard, meaning the storm center should move outside the cone only 10 percent of the time. Eventually, the National Hurricane Center plans to develop a more dynamic cone that can shift with an approaching storm's movement.

Extended Inland Watches and Warnings

The hurricane center is now including inland watches and warnings in its forecast materials. Previously, tropical watches and warnings were limited to coastal areas only. This expansion provides a more comprehensive view of the risk storms could pose to inland communities beyond the coast.

Tropical Outlook and Hawaii Enhancements

The tropical weather outlook has been revised to mark any system with near-zero chance of development with a grey X instead of yellow on the tropical outlook map. Additionally, Hawaii will now have storm surge watches, warnings, flooding forecasts, and surge forecasts available for the islands.